That’s the title of the latest “Water Primer” from Bank of America Merrill Lynch Research.  I can’t post the entire 185 page report, but it dramatically frames the issue before diving into details and discussing investment, and geopolitical risk, implications. I can, however, provide parts of the executive summary, see below. While this is a global report, and the US is in the “medium risk” category, to continue to act like we are immune to the threat is foolhardy and irresponsible. Locally, we remain focused on buttressing and funding a water system whose foundation was laid over a century ago. A system that is no longer adequate and, even with proposed investments, will not meet our needs in the future if climate projections prove accurate.

Running out of freshwater by 2040?

Some 75% of our planet is covered with water, yet less than 1% is usable, and even this is depleting quickly. Water demand is up c.40% over the past 40 years and is estimated to go up another 25% by 2050, but supply has more than halved since 1970 (World Bank). As a result, around half of the world’s population already endures extremely high water stress at least one month of the year. And at the current rate, we could run out of freshwater as soon as 2040 (Aarhus University).

Demand up 40%…

Water demand already exceeds population growth by 1.7x. The world’s population is set to peak at c.10bn by 2050, while urbanisation is rising dramatically with 25% of the global population moving to cities, driving demand. Even GDP growth should translate to a 400% increase in water demand by 2050. This is an era of hyper consumption like fast fashion, food and technology, which boosts water use. It takes 3 weeks’ worth of showers to make one t-shirt and 3.5 months’ worth for a 1kg steak. Data centres are the 10th largest water consumer in the US, and ChatGPT “drinks” a litre every 40 commands.

…yet supply down 50%

At the same time, water supply in terms of quality and quantity is declining. Some 80% of global sewage is dumped into the sea without adequate treatment, microplastics have been found in 83% of tap water, and 57% of global freshwater aquifers are beyond tipping point. Poor infrastructure limits supply as globally 1/3 of all fresh water running through pipes is lost to leakage. Finally, the climate and water crises are intertwined – for every +1°C, there is a 20% drop in renewable water (UN).