That’s the title of the latest “Water Primer” from Bank of America Merrill Lynch Research.  I can’t post the entire 185 page report, but it dramatically frames the issue before diving into details and discussing investment, and geopolitical risk, implications. I can, however, provide parts of the executive summary, see below. While this is a global report, and the US is in the “medium risk” category, to continue to act like we are immune to the threat is foolhardy and irresponsible. Locally, we remain focused on buttressing and funding a water system whose foundation was laid over a century ago. A system that is no longer adequate and, even with proposed investments, will not meet our needs in the future if climate projections prove accurate.

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It’s premature to worry too much about the snowpack and it’s water content, but I think it’s time to start tracking the Natural Resources Water Conservation Service’s monthly water supply outlook report for Oregon. This is a comprehensive report with specific sections on the Upper Deschutes and Crooked River Basins. I’ll provide a few graphics, but I encourage you to at least scan the report. In short, precipitation and snowpack are well below normal for this time of year. As anyone who has lived in Central Oregon for a while knows, it’s foolish to predict the weather around here but we know we need multiple years of above average snow water equivalent to get back to what used to be considered normal.

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Over the past 2 days, Oregon Public Broadcasting has had a few interesting articles. “What the new federal climate report says about the Northwest” states “the report emphasizes various impacts of climate change on the Northwest, predicting warmer winter temperatures, reduced mountain snowpack, more frequent and severe droughts, increased extreme rainfall, and larger, higher-elevation wildfires.” Note that it predicts more “extreme” rainfall, not more precipitation overall, and more droughts. Links to related articles worth reading are embedded. As the title implies, “9 times the US Army Corps of Engineers miscalculated badly at the expense of taxpayers, wildlife“, is pretty damning review of Corps projects (pun intended). Oregonians have plenty of examples of this, including dams on the Crooked and Deschutes Rivers.

My avocation is water and fish zealot but I have a day job in an entirely different field that gives me access to interesting research reports, including some that examine the intersection between important trends and investing themes.  A fascinating one on water came out yesterday from Merrill Lynch.  It’s 185 pages and not for broad public distribution, but I can share the summary highlights.  While the report is global in scope, there are themes that apply to residents of Central Oregon.  (BTW, this report is written in British, not American, and those are not spelling errors.)

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Fish hatcheries are an intractable source of controversy in the angling community.  Without them, most of the fishing that Oregonians enjoy would disappear since sportfish did not exist in most of our lakes prior to stocking.  On the other hand, it is a scientific fact that hatchery fish released into rivers are an important contributor to the decline of wild fish.  Speaking for myself as a wild, native fish bigot, I think there is an important role for hatcheries, but I wish that hatchery fish were not released into rivers where they can interact with wild, native fish.  As a recent report commissioned by the Oregon Depart of Fish & Wildlife reveals, that may have to occur in some places in the coming years, but it is not necessarily good news for wild fish.

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Yesterday ODFW announced a preliminary forecast for “upriver” Columbia Basin summer steelhead returns. These are fish that migrate past Bonneville Dam to places like the Deschutes River and further inland. They believe that “returns will continue to be poor, marking what would be the 8^th consecutive year of low returns.” ODFW warns anglers to expect continued angling restrictions in 2023. The primary issue is that while ocean conditions for some anadromous fish have improved, Columbia Basin steelhead move into waters that continue to be too warm to be productive. These early forecasts are notoriously inaccurate but the overall trend remains deeply concerning. I encourage you to read ODFW’s web page on this forecast, it is well written and filled with interesting information.

My friend George Wuerthner forwarded an interesting article titled “Trouble at Sea: For salmon in the North Pacific, has the ocean reached its limit?” It was published in bioGraphic, an online publication I had not previously heard of. We’ve all read plenty about deteriorating ocean conditions and declining salmon stocks. An anomaly has been record returns of Bristol Bay sockeye. It turns out there is more than meets the eye in Bristol Bay, however. For example, there is an inverse relationship between overall run size and the size of individual fish which could lead to a variety of negative long term consequences.

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I am not a social media user and do not allow comments on this blog as those forms of communication are mostly unproductive. I do get emails with some regularity, however, as my email address can be easily found. Further, if someone takes the time to write I always respond. The majority of emails are complementary, but every now and then I get one that gives me pause. Below is a missive I received yesterday and my response. This is another example of how polarized we are and how much work needs to be done.

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The Associated Press recently released, “Droughts haves, have-nots test how to share water in the West“, along with an associated video. AP covers the drought here in Central Oregon, the impacts on North Unit Irrigation District patrons, and implementing water markets as a solution. Kate Fitzpatrick, Executive Director of the Deschutes River Conservancy, makes a good case for that. I encourage you to read the article and watch the video. This is a big, complex issue, AP only covers a portion of it, but this is the best coverage of this part I have seen.

I continue to be taken at how late so many are to understanding the issues. A local farmer is quoted as saying he only started paying attention to water availability two months ago because it was simply always there. Yikes! Irrigation districts, government agencies, municipalities, NGOS, and concerned individual citizens like me have been tracking and participating in forums on this topic for many years. How could a farmer whose livelihood depends on water not be aware of what is going on in the Deschutes Basin? I understand politicians avoiding the issue, but the rest of us need to get engaged. The worst is yet to come as our water table drops. Farmers are not the only ones at risk. The article touches on the fact that California made changes in their water laws, we need to force our politicians to do the same.

This article could be about Central Oregon in the near future and is worth reading. The Colorado River is a mirror of the issues we face locally: global warming, unsustainable water use, archaic water laws, booming populations, wasteful agricultural practices, spineless politicians, etc. Unless something changes soon we will share the same fate.

The Oregon Water Resources Department has a weekly drought report email. You can sign up for it here. You can see this week’s report here. We should all be familiar with graphs showing current drought conditions in Central Oregon (we’re mostly in extreme or exceptional drought) and current stream flows (they are well below normal overall). Above is an interesting chart showing soil moisture content that you may not be as familiar with. Deschutes County soil is dry overall, especially in the Cascades, which is the source of our water. The takeaway is that it is going to take numerous above average snow years to recover soil moisture to “normal” levels. This is important given that the vast majority of our water comes out of the ground.

This press release from ODFW was issued today. What a bummer. I guess I’ll be extending my trout fishing for as long as possible.

North Umpqua River, tributaries, closed to all angling

August 9, 2021

ROSEBURG, Ore – Low numbers of summer steelhead returning to the North Umpqua River prompted state fishery managers to close the river and its tributaries to all angling from the mouth to the marker below Soda Springs Dam. The emergency closure is effective Aug. 10 through Nov. 30, 2021.

Initial counts of summer steelhead passing Winchester Dam are historically low at about 20 percent of average. These counts are determined from Winchester Dam video of migrating fish as well as from snorkel counts in Steamboat and Canton Creeks.  

“This information, along with the continued low flow and high water temperatures, led us to this decision. We plan to have this closure in place through December to provide as much protection as possibly for these wild summer steelhead,” said Evan Leonetti, assistant district fisheries biologist.

Greg Huchko, Umpqua district fish biologist said the decision was not easy to make and he hopes anglers will understand the need for the closure during these unprecedented decisions.

By now, we should all be aware of our 20-year drought (I have many posts on this). While I have seen many graphical representations of it, this one in Kyle’s presentation was new to me. The blue bars show actual monthly precipitation over the past 20 years as measured at Wickiup Dam (not average as stated in the chart). The red line shows the cumulative departure from average. Over the past 20 years, Wickiup has seen almost 60 less inches than “average”. Kyle goes on to say in the presentation the cause is normal weather cycles, not global warming. Regardless of the reason, it has been dry over the past 20 years and we have had no changes in water policy or management in response.

Winter is approximately 1/3 over, so there’s a lot of time for things to change, but I thought I’d comment on where things stand so far. The short answer is, not good. Central Oregon remains in moderate to extreme drought conditions, we need significantly more than normal snow, probably for multiple years, to get out of it, and so far we are below normal. If you want to dig in more, keep reading. There are many interesting infographics if you like this sort of thing.

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Today the Bend Bulletin ran an opinion piece titled “Removal of unproductive dams best for salmon” from an admitted lobbyist for the hydro power industry. While parts of the article were certainly true, it was a blatant attempt to “greenwash*” hydro power. Yes, ocean conditions are an important factor in anadromous fish declines, but so are dams. Yes, unproductive dams should be removed, but to state that the lower Snake River dams are an essential source of clean energy and not a significant contributor to the decline of Columbia Basin salmon and steelhead is simply a fabrication.

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I know that with all the fire devastation around us, ODFW hatcheries are low on the list of concerns, but this is a water and fish blog so I’m reporting that Marion Forks, Minto, Leaburg, McKenzie, Rock Creek and Klamath hatcheries have all been evacuated. Many fish at these hatcheries will be lost along with some buildings, although the extent of the damage is unknown at this time. Regardless of your opinion on hatcheries, this is going to be another huge hit to a dramatically underfunded ODFW budget which will impact all anglers. Still unconvinced that planet heating is upon us?

Two recent stories caught my eye. This article in The Guardian states that 23% of all water in the US is used to grow feed for cows and is a primary driver of water shortages. Hay is the primary crop in Deschutes and Crook counties. This NY Times article examines a problem we are all too familiar with: dwindling snowpack and the threat of a mega drought cycle. Both articles could have been written about Central Oregon.

Yesterday, Karen and I took our canoe out to Little Cultus Lake along the Cascade Lakes Highway for a late afternoon, escape-the-heat excursion.  Given the drought and heat wave I was not too surprised to see algae starting to form, but it was disappointing.  As anyone who has lived in Central Oregon for any amount of time knows, algae blooms are occurring more frequently.  This excursion reminded me that in April I was given this report on algae in Odell Lake and am way overdue for a post about it.

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David Moskowitz, Executive Director of The Conservation Anger, emailed me with a few comments on my post about the Oregon Department of Fish & Wildlife’s plans for creating cold water refugia for steelhead in the Columbia River.  I have been thinking about this more as well, so here are some things to consider.  I really hope you take the time to look at ODFW’s web page on this topic and submit your comments via email.Read More »

Yesterday ODFW held an online public meeting to discuss potential plans for creating cold water refugia for steelhead in the Columbia River.  From my perspective, this is a simple decision.  With a heating planet and plunging steelhead populations in the Columbia Basin, of course there should be cold water areas set aside where fishing is restricted.  If anything, it seems we should err on the side of making the refugia areas larger and closures longer.  This is not a universally held opinion, however.Read More »

The four dams on the Snake River are not in Central Oregon, but they have an enormous impact on Columbia River Basin (which incudes the Deschutes Basin) steelhead and salmon.  These iconic populations are currently on the path to extinction.  Recently, two tribes joined the chorus of voices calling for the removal of the dams.  Last week 55 scientists released a letter that did likewise.  Also last week, E&E News published another article detailing how these dams no longer make economic sense – hydro power is no longer cheap when compared to alternatives – and it would actually be cheaper to remove them than continue their operation.  I would love to see the same analysis of the PGE/CTWS dams on the Deschutes River.

Today the Bend Bulletin printed a response to my recent letter from Kurt Miller, the Executive Director of Northwest RiverPartners, a group that lobbies for hydroelectric facilities on the Columbia River.  Predictably, Mr. Miller takes issue with my inclusion of hydro power dams in the list of reasons that anadromous fish populations are collapsing in the Columbia River Basin.Read More »

Source: www.fpc.org

Yesterday, the Bend Bulletin printed a guest column I wrote on the grim outlook for steelhead and salmon in the Columbia Basin (including the Deschutes River). Above is a graphic that illustrates the problem. Here’s a NY Times article on the same topic. Whether some of these fish have 10 years left as I have read in some places, or 20 as reported in the NY Times, it is not a hopeful picture.

 

Irrigation season in Central Oregon continues into mid October, but the picture is already an interesting one.  As this graph makes obvious, many local “lakes” are actually irrigation reservoirs and local rivers are used as irrigation canals.  What is also obvious is the difference between water levels in Wickiup and other reservoirs.Read More »

That’s the title of an article that came out earlier this month. It’s well written and worth a read. It mirrors some of the themes I have been visiting for some time now. Less snow pack combined with heating will lead to water insecurity in Oregon for which we are not ready or planning. At the same time, demand is growing along with our population. We continue to waste water and don’t even really know who is using it or how much of it. Agriculture remains the primary culprit in this, most users have no conservation plans and do not report usage while using over 85% of all water. To add insult to injury, agricultural interests routinely challenge any attempt to restore flows in rivers. At least we could charge them for use of our water (all water is owned by the public). That would solve the inefficiency problem very quickly.

Immediately after making my River & Drought Outlook post on Monday I contacted the Bend Bulletin and told them that “there has to be a story in there for you”. Today they did publish a story about the rapidly diminishing snowpack but, not surprisingly, completely omitted any mention of impacts on fish & wildlife or water recreation. The story was all about what it means for local business, irrigation districts, and fires. It’s no wonder that the paper is bankrupt (again), they just don’t seem to understand the mindset of the rapidly changing local population. We have have a lifestyle economy, people want to recreate outdoors, and healthy rivers and lakes are a key element of that.

Headwaters of the Deschutes at Little Lava Lake on 5/12/19.  A dry river.

Without a doubt, current water conditions are dramatically improved from the beginning of the year.  All is not well, however, and work to conserve water and improve river flows should remain at the forefront of every angler’s agenda if we hope to continue to enjoy our sport at a high level.  As of yesterday, Little Lava Lake is very low, is not spilling into the upper Deschutes, and there is essentially no snow to be seen in that area.Read More »

Today the Bulletin ran a story echoing what I have been writing about for some time, there will be water shortages this summer for some irrigation districts.  Unfortunately, the wrong ones in my opinion.  North Unit Irrigation District supplies real farmers around Madras who are going to have to fallow some lands.  Central Oregon Irrigation District has senior water rights but primarily supplies hobby farmers and will see no shortages.  This is just wrong.

I have spent the past 4 days battling the flu (and losing so far) so I could not make it to the Ways & Means hearing in Redmond yesterday.  I was able to get off the couch this afternoon to submit the written comments below.  You can as well using this email address: waysandmeans.budget@oregonlegislature.gov.  As someone who serves on a state board where public comments are submitted I can tell you they make a difference.  Don’t assume someone else will do it for you.Read More »

Yet another study was released this week cataloging how badly the oceans are suffering from global warming, this time in the journal Nature.  As is typical, it has a title that is not very accessible to the layman and does not express the urgency of the situation: “Marine heatwaves threaten global biodiversity and the provision of ecosystem services”.   Unfortunately, scientists continue to believe that they need to appear dispassionate and analytical, which is welcome at times, but is also a failing approach when it comes to global warming.  As this article expresses, it really is time to panic.  (Nature also has an article that attempts to understand why scientists are so poor at communicating with laymen.  It seems pretty obvious to me, just read the title of the article.)Read More »

Here’s the latest Oregon snow pack data.  Obviously, this is extremely good news and a big turnaround from only a couple of weeks ago.  A large snow pack combined with a cool spring will allow for a long, slow release of melt water into our aquifers, rivers, and lakes.  This was highly unexpected but more than welcome news.  Now let’s hope for a cool spring.Read More »

I have written about global warming’s impact on the ocean off the coast of Oregon as well as on local steelhead and salmon populations.  To put it mildly, warming, acidification, and oxygen deficiency have not been beneficial.  At the same time, some far northern locations, close to the arctic, have seen record runs of some species.  Bristol Bay is a good example.  Here’s a report in the journal Science which helps quantify all this.  The bottom line is that ocean fish populations are clearly declining overall due to global warming.

Today the Bend Bulletin ran a story on climate change’s impact to local rivers and I was one of the people quoted.  I am always frustrated with the experience of spending time discussing an issue in depth and seeing cursory coverage as a result.  I respect work the reporter does for the paper and understand that space is limited but there is so much more to say.  Oh well. The good news is the article does capture the big picture and hopefully adds to the general awareness of global warming’s current local impact, not sometime in the future.  That being said, I do have one quibble with the story.Read More »