On rare occasions I post about something other than fish or water. I have a MSCS, like to maintain a current understanding of technology, and lately been spending an inordinate amount of time diving as deep as I can into the economic and investing aspects of AI. Recently, Paul Kedrosky has emerged as a compelling advocate of the AI bubble position, at least over the near term. This morning I asked Gemini “what are the errors in paul kedrosky’s analysis of an AI bubble” and was surprised by how quickly a detailed response was provided. LLMs clearly have limitations and uncertainties, especially from an economics and investor perspective, but they have become huge time savers for the sort of research and thinking I do. An LLM is not intelligent and could not have formulated Kedrosky’s argument but its ability to quickly provide an outline of a counterargument based on available sources in an obscure area was impressive. I still don’t understand how an AI company makes money by giving away access to these tools but they sure are useful.

Readers of this blog may recall that I am a member of the Deschutes Basin Water Collaborative which is nearing the end of a multiyear attempt to create a plan to address a wide range of water issues based on the state’s placed-based water planning process. It’s been a long, tedious process and, unsurprisingly, the outcome is going to be disappointing, but there have been informative conversations and presentations. One such presentation was given a few days ago and has been posted. “Water Quality Program Work in the Deschutes Basin” was a presentation by the Oregon Department of Environmental Quality which covered their monitoring of “impoundments” (lakes and reservoirs) in the Deschutes River system from the headwaters to Lake Billy Chinook. I found it interesting and frustrating. The recording is of the entire DBWC meeting, the ODEQ presentation starts at 44 minutes and 50 seconds and lasts an hour and five minutes.

I try to avoid posting too much fish porn, but it’s been a while. We saw a beautiful sunrise before having a good day swinging flies for steelhead on the Lower Deschutes yesterday. I hooked into three fish. The middle sized one is in the photo below, it was somewhere over 32″ based on it’s length compared to my wingspan. Perhaps as much as 36″. I hope you are getting out there.

I spent the last two days camped in the Ochocos helping local ODFW biologists sample a remote river about two hours from Bend. This is the second trip I’ve done this year doing this in different areas. I previously had not spent any time exploring the Ochocos. Access is limited and pretty rough in spots. It’s not a premier fishing destination but it is beautiful and it is great to see that trout can survive at some level in small, heavily degraded rivers and streams. Cows, water diversions, and drought have certainly made an impact on what were once better aquatic environments.

I am a lifetime member of the Association of NW Steelheaders. I have been reconsidering my association with them as they have been sucked into the Deschutes River Alliance camp and actively spreading disinformation from the tin foil hat crowd but they continue to advocate for Snake River Dam removal, something that all steelhead and salmon anglers should care about. Here is a recent post from them on HR 2073, legislation introduced into the US House of Representatives that would prohibit the use of federal funds to allow or study the breach or alteration of the lower Snake River Dams. The post also includes a link for you to register your opposition to this bill.

Approximately 30 years ago the Oregon Department of Fish & Wildlife started tracking fish populations in various small creeks in the Ochoco National Forest. Some creeks and much of the North Fork Crooked River were already too degraded to hold redband trout, but some creeks still had robust populations. Every three years the survey is repeated and population trends are tracked. The primary purpose of the survey is to inform forest managers as they consider timber sales and changes in various forest management practices. Not too long ago this data was one of the reasons the proposal for expanding off highway vehicle access in the forest was strongly opposed. The survey is done by ODFW and US Forest Service personnel with the help of volunteers. For the past three days I was one of those volunteers, camping in the mountains, and visiting a number of creeks I had never seen before.

Over the past three months I have been exclusively fishing rivers in Oregon and Idaho. Today I got my lake boat out and headed to Paulina for the first time this year with one of my sons. As usual, it was beautiful, with very clear water, and plenty of willing fish. We landed more than our fair share, nothing huge, but lots of fun before the wind chased us off in the early afternoon. I am very concerned, however, by the incredible schools of tui chubs we encountered. They were everywhere in really big numbers. For many years, ODFW has been netting the chubs in East and Paulina lakes. Budget cuts have forced them to stop netting at Paulina and have a reduced program at East. It will be a real tragedy if funds are not found to resume netting at Paulina. The schools we saw were composed of small fish, but they will grow and reproduce quickly.

One of the many hats I wear is to arrange monthly presentations for Central Oregon Flyfishers. As you would expect, these are mostly talks on fly fishing but a few every year are on environmental issues. Next Wednesday, July 16, we will hear from the Wild Salmon Center. WSC takes a different approach than other environmental groups working to protect fish. Founded in 1992 and run since 1998 by Oregon native and fly fishing fanatic Guido Rahr, WSC works to protect “strongholds,” places still supporting wild anadromous salmonids. There’s a book titled “Stronghold” about Guido that I really enjoyed reading. The staff and board of directors at WSC are truly impressive. It should be a good talk and anyone can attend this meeting which is held at the Bend Elk’s Club and starts at 6 pm.

My wife and I returned yesterday from a 100 mile, six day float down the Middle Fork of the Salmon River in Idaho. This river flows through the Frank Church – River of No Return Wilderness. We had some tough weather for four days but we were prepared and it was beautiful. It was great to be disconnected from normal life for a while.

Of course, we returned to concerning news on so many fronts, too typical these days, but I wanted to comment on the decision to end protections for 58 million acres of national forests by allowing road construction and logging, including in the Frank Church Wilderness. (This is an executive order and seperate from the bill being considered in the US Senate to sell public lands.) This order will have massive impact on many wilderness areas and this pristine river. The water was so clean and clear. Sediment runoff into the river from road construction and logging will be a disaster. If you want more on the trip, keep reading.

If you follow this blog you’ve probably been reading about the Trump administration’s recent decision to pull out of an agreement to restore salmon and steelhead populations in the Columbia Basin. Here’s a good overview from OPB. Needless to say, this is terrible news for anadromous fish. I have nothing to add to this except to direct you to a YouTube video of last Friday’s ODFW commission meeting where it was discussed starting at 2:34:49. (Yes, I do watch these things.) The frustration on the part of ODFW staff and the commission was on full display. Along those same lines, a discussion starting at 1:22:33 by the commissioners about the legislature overriding their decisions was telling. We live in a political world and ODFW has little political power.

This morning another member of Central Oregon Flyfishers and I met with a couple of the remaining staff at the Bend US Forest Service office to ask about extending the boat ramps at East Lake. They are aware of the problem and are trying to address it but a solution is at least three years out, likely longer. They are as frustrated as anyone but have many obstacles. Staff cuts have been huge. They have to consult with tribal authorities to get permission to dig anything for cultural reasons. They need a NEPA analysis. Etc. They may have a solution that is being piloted outside of Central Oregon but it will be a couple of years before they can make a determination that it will work. The good news is that they are aware that toilets at local lakes closed far too early last year and will keep at least one toilet per lake open to the end of the season if snow levels allow.

Yesterday I took one of my sons fishing on the McKenzie. It was cool and wet, and the river was a little high, but we landed a few nice rainbows, a couple of big whitefish, and many smaller fish. It’s not the Deschutes, but it is awfully nice to fish from a boat. An easy day trip to satisfy your need for trout before the Deschutes opens.

I am a long time member of Central Oregon Flyfishers, a great organization for local fly anglers with over 250 members. This year we have moved part of our annual banquet online and anyone can bid on items. There might be something there of interest to you. Check it out: https://new.biddingowl.com/COF2025Auction

Yesterday I played guide and took a fishing friend and one of my sons to Lake Billy Chinook. 22 bull trout were netted, all before noon when the bite stopped. Nothing huge, but a few around 18-19″ (measured) and all were very feisty. The lake is in great shape. A good day. I could see bigger fish on the finder, but they were down 50+ feet, too deep for fly fishing even with a 7ips line. Hopefully, they will come up as smolt migration increases.

One of my goals this winter has been to spend time on the Oregon coast steelhead fishing. Last night I returned from another trip. Exploring places I have not been before, driving down one lane dirt roads, taking long hikes through the forest in waders to streams without other anglers, catching steelhead, and seeing critters I don’t normally see is all good. On the other hand, while there I am constantly reminded how great it is to live in Central Oregon. It’s pretty hard to beat living around here, at least until this summer when we are all choking on smoke again.

My friend Scott and I had a five hour session on Lake Billy Chinook today. We hooked seven of them. Nothing of any real size, the big one was this fish I measured at 18″, but it was fun. The water was 40 degrees, so still a bit cold, but it’s time to get out there.

As readers of this blog know, I have mixed feelings about hatcheries. Ideally, they would not exist, but we do not live in an ideal world. Seth White, the director of the Oregon Hatchery Research Center, has stared a new Substack (the modern version of a blog) with this announcement: “I recently decided to join the longstanding tradition of academics writing about their research and personal views for lay audiences. I created a Substack called Rising Rivers and the debut article is titled Abundant rivers: What role can hatcheries play in recovering harvestable salmon abundance while protecting wild populations?” I don’t know where he is going with this, but I liked the first post and subscribed.

I am not a wildfire expert but have spent the past five years or so educating myself by reading academic and other research by wildfire experts. It is a fascinating area and the conclusions contradict many of the recommendations from the US Forest Service and pro-logging special interests. The recent furor over the state wildfire maps motivated me to write an opinion column that was published in The Bulletin today.

As you know, at the beginning of every biennium our state legislature establishes the state budget, including ODFW’s. This process is now underway for the 2026-2028 biennium which begins in June. ODFW is facing a serious budget shortfall which will impact anglers and hunters throughout the state. It’s short notice, but an important hearing on a couple of bills will occur on Monday and you can provide input before next Wednesday at 8 am. I’ll provide context and a method of expressing your opinion below but you need to take action soon.

The ODFW commission had a couple of presentations this week that I found interesting. The first was on a chemical (6PPD which turns into 6PPD-q) that comes from tires, washes off roads into waterways, and kills salmonids, particularly coho salmon. You can watch a recording of that presentation here. It begins around minute 27 and lasts a little over an hour. The discussion after the presentation was valuable as well. The over simplified summary is that this is a serious problem and while research has been done more is needed. There are some promising potential solutions but individually they are not comprehensive, implementing a truly comprehensive solution would be expensive, and take decades to effect statewide. This is a big and complex problem. Let’s hope that funding for all the agencies and groups working on this continues.

I have been posting a little about Rogue Riverkeeper’s attempts to ban jet boats in the Upper Rogue River above Table Rock Road. A few days ago they announced victory. As someone who likes to float and fish for steelhead around Shady Cove (Lost Creek Dam to Dodge Bridge) I am happy with this outcome. Thank you if you submitted a letter in support for this action.

Jason Zweig is my favorite columnist at the Wall Street Journal. Today he referred to a 1972 book by George Goodman (aka Adam Smith) titled “Supermoney”. It contained this paragraph:

Jason quoted this passage in reference to the current US stock market, but after yesterday’s presidential orders designed to dismantle attempts to fight global warming I think it is applicable there as well. We are all at a huge party, we all know it will end, but no one knows exactly when. Unfortunately, unlike the stock market, there is no way to leave this party early. The Black Horseman will come for all of us.

The Bulletin reported today that the Deschutes Soil and Water Conservation District was awarded $509,992 of taxpayer money for unspecified enhancement projects. This is on top of the recent tax increase approved by Deschutes County voters for unspecified DSWC projects, a tax increase I argued against. The problem is that no commitment has been made by DSWC to increase flows in the Deschutes River from piping private canals or installing sprinkler systems. It appears that saved water will be retained by the landowner for their private use. On-farm water efficiency projects are important, but if taxpayers are subsidizing improvements on private land there should be public benefit.

It looks like the good summer steelhead run is continuing to winter steelhead season. Got three of these last Friday on the North Umpqua below Winchester. Pretty fun on a single hand 7wt rod. Now that I am mostly retired I plan to spend as much time as possible on the other side of the Cascades for the next few months.

My friend George Wuerthner writes frequently about wildfires. His central position is that forest logging (“thinning”) is detrimental to forest ecosystems and can increase the probability of destructive, large scale wildfires. Other actions are more important to protect communities. Of course, this is not intuitive and is not the commonly held opinion. It’s a complicated subject but yesterday he posted this article which provides an overview of some of his research. It is not a question of if, only when, a large scale, wind-driven fire impacts homes in Central Oregon but homeowners, building codes, and land use can make a difference. I have spent a lot of time over the past few years increasing the fire resiliency of my home, efforts that are continuing.

This is not a Central Oregon issue but if you like to fish the Rogue River around Shady Cove as much as I do, please keep reading. If you have ever fished this part of the Rogue then you may have encountered a jet boat creating a dangerous wake if you are standing in the river or floating in your drift boat or pontoon. Rogue Riverkeeper is attempting to ban all boats over 10 HP in the Upper Rogue above Fishers Ferry County Park, which make sense to me as an angler. There will still be plenty of river for high powered boats. Further, why ban all boats at rarely occurring very low flows? How is a pontoon boat a problem? Check out this blog post from Rogue Riverkeeper and click on their “take action” link to send a letter. (Yes, I wrote about this some time ago, but more comments are needed now on the final proposed regulations from the Oregon State Marine Board.)

My tradition is to fish the Lower Deschutes on December 31st, closing day. It has typically been a good outing as there is little angling pressure. This year I only had a half day and I walked down from Mecca. I quickly remembered why I don’t do that, where did all those people come from? I did not find a steelhead, but I did land this bull trout, and it was a pretty sunrise.

A couple of press articles recently came out claiming that salmon and steelhead returns in the Columbia Basin have held steady over the past 10 years.  Both stories acknowledge that returns are far lower than historical numbers but state they are an improvement from the 1990s.  The data is from the Northwest Power and Conservation Council, a group that works with the Bonneville Power Administration to “ensure, with public participation, an affordable and reliable energy system while enhancing fish and wildlife in the Columbia River Basin.”  Of course, federal courts have ruled repeatedly that the BPA is not doing enough to recover wild fish and is primarily focused on the delivery of power.  

I hope you have been having a good steelhead season on the Lower Deschutes. I certainly have. Things might not be as good next year. NOAA Fisheries recently sent out a report that contains the heading “A Potentially Tough Year Coming for Pacific Salmon”. Last year, “wind-driven upwelling delivered cooler-than-average ocean temperatures, and higher-than-average biomass of lipid-rich copepods.” In other words, a rich food web. Unfortunately, NOAA states that they are seeing “mixed signals” about 2025.

The current issue of The Osprey has an excellent article that all wild fish supporters should read. While the title is unwieldy, “Reflections of American Conservation and Economic History in Relation to Wild Salmon and Steelhead”, the contents are well written and expansive hitting on many of the topics I like to cover. I’ll give a very brief summary, little more than a teaser, and encourage you to read it yourself. It begins on page 16. Of course, if you love wild salmonids you should subscribe to this free publication and make a donation to support it. As an aside, I really dislike the way the issue is displayed on their website, but you can download it as a PDF for much easier reading.

On October 30th a judge denied a request to order ODFW to continue to release summer steelhead into the North Umpqua river. This is a long saga that I’ll summarize below, but it appears that the ODFW Commission’s April 2022 decision to stop these hatchery releases may finally be implemented, at least until the next legal maneuver. Here’s a blog post from The Conservation Angler with the announcement. Keeping reading for some background.

Yesterday I returned from a 10 day fishing trip to Brazil and have a number of posts to catch up on. Here’s a start. While away, I was contacted by a reader asking my opinion on the Deschutes Soil & Water Conservation District’s ballot request to get additional taxpayer funding. In short, I think they do good work, and could support additional funding in the future with a few changes, but there are issues voters should be aware of. For more on this see below and two recent opinion columns in the Bend Bulletin from current DSWC board members. One argues against additional taxpayer funding, the other is in support.

Contrary to the disinformation that continues to seep out from the tin foil hat crowd, last week a federal report stated that the Lower Deschutes River below the Pelton Round Butte hydroelectric project has very high water quality. As stated in this news article,

“Warm Springs Tribes have been engaged in restoration efforts on the Deschutes River for decades, not only to ensure clean, safe drinking water for the Reservation but also to improve fishery health. The report’s findings are positive signs for both objectives, as the lack of PFAS points to clean drinking water, the absence of 6PPD-Quinone supports fish health, and the water’s low turbidity and high clarity also correlates with fish health.”

As I have been writing for years, the science clearly shows that the Lower Deschutes is in great shape.

The Deschutes River Conservancy recently announced a tour of a North Unit Irrigation District patron who practices “water wise farming”. Clearly, there are farmers who should be applauded for utilizing good irrigation practices and understanding how they do this is valuable. Unfortunately, according to the US Department of Agriculture, there are only 1,542 farms (those with typical revenues over $1,000) in Central Oregon. (No, that’s not a typo, you only need to make $1,000 to be considered a farmer.) At the same time, there are over 7,600 irrigation district patrons. These other irrigators are commonly called “hobby farmers” and they frequently use practices that could not be called “water wise farming”. It would be great if the DRC would talk about this as well. Below is a picture of a field close to where I live that uses flood irrigation, a water delivery method first used in Mesopotamia 5,000 years ago. Even wheel line sprinkler systems lose around 45% of the water that is sprayed into the air before it reaches the ground.